Bitcoin on Track to Hit ARK’s 2030 Price Targets of Up to $1.5 Million as Spot ETFs See Record Inflows

Investment management firm ARK has released its much-anticipated 2025 Big Ideas report, forecasting Bitcoin’s price trajectory through 2030. According to the report, Bitcoin remains on track to meet its long-term targets, with a base case of $700,000, a bullish scenario of $1.5 million, and a bear case of $300,000 per BTC by the decade's end.

Record-Breaking Inflows for Spot Bitcoin ETFs

ARK’s report also highlights the remarkable success of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, calling them the most successful ETF launch in history. On their first day of trading, these ETFs attracted over $4 billion in inflows, surpassing the $1.2 billion that flowed into gold ETFs in their first month back in November 2004.

In fact, these inflows eclipsed the first-month inflows of any ETF launched in the past 30 years, further solidifying Bitcoin’s growing institutional adoption.

Bitcoin’s Fourth Halving Strengthens Its Scarcity

Following its fourth halving event, Bitcoin’s annual inflation rate dropped from 1.8% to approximately 0.9%, making it even scarcer than gold in terms of long-term supply growth. This predictable monetary policy continues to reinforce Bitcoin’s role as a deflationary asset.

While miner revenue dropped sharply post-halving, Bitcoin’s hash rate surged to a new all-time high, indicating strong miner confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

Runes Protocol Sparks Record Daily Bitcoin Transactions

The introduction of the Runes protocol led to a record-breaking spike in daily Bitcoin transactions. Runes allows the creation of fungible tokens directly on the Bitcoin blockchain, further enhancing Bitcoin’s utility beyond a store of value.

Bitcoin Absorbs Major Selling Pressure, Bounces Back Stronger

In January 2024, the German government seized 50,000 BTC linked to an online piracy group and later sold it six months after the seizure. Despite this massive supply entering the market, Bitcoin’s price absorbed the selling pressure and rallied from $53,000 to $68,000, demonstrating resilient demand.

Public Companies Increase Bitcoin Holdings

Institutional adoption continues to rise, with 74 publicly traded companies now holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Over the past year, the total value of Bitcoin held by these companies soared from $11 billion in 2023 to $55 billion, marking a fivefold increase.

Bitcoin’s Cost Basis Reaches Record High

In 2024, Bitcoin’s aggregate cost basis hit an all-time high, with realized capitalization soaring 86%. The average acquisition cost per Bitcoin reached $40,980, bringing its total market capitalization to $811.7 billion.

Bitcoin’s Transaction Velocity Drops to 14-Year Low, Strengthening Its Role as a Store of Value

Bitcoin’s transaction velocity declined to a 14-year low in 2024, while the supply held for three years or more reached an all-time high. This trend underscores Bitcoin’s growing reputation as a long-term store of value, as more holders choose to accumulate rather than trade.

(Sources: investing.com, reuters,com, ChatGPT)