ChatGPT Projected to Generate $100 Billion in Ad Revenue by 2030, Says Wells Fargo

OpenAI's ChatGPT Set to Disrupt Search Advertising Market

According to a recent forecast by Wells Fargo, ChatGPT could become a major player in the global digital advertising space, potentially generating up to $100 billion in annual advertising revenue by 2030. The AI-powered chatbot is expected to seize approximately 30% of the global search ad market, posing a serious challenge to Google’s long-standing dominance.

AI Advertising Revolution: Market Forecast Through 2030

Wells Fargo analysts, led by Ken Gawrelski, predict the global search advertising market will expand to nearly $340 billion by the end of the decade, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% between 2025 and 2030. The report suggests that most of ChatGPT’s future gains in ad market share will likely come at Google’s expense.

Current Usage vs. Monetisation: ChatGPT's Untapped Potential

While ChatGPT currently powers nearly 8% of global search queries, it has yet to fully monetise its user base through advertising. Wells Fargo anticipates this will soon change. The bank expects OpenAI to begin rolling out sponsored ad placements within ChatGPT over the next 12 months, capitalising on its massive audience.

The platform already boasts over 500 million weekly active users, the vast majority of whom access ChatGPT via the free tier. Only an estimated 5% are paying subscribers. This makes ChatGPT an ideal candidate for ad-supported monetisation models similar to those used by major tech platforms.

Search Market Share: ChatGPT vs Google

Wells Fargo projects ChatGPT's share of global search instances will grow to 17% by the end of 2025 and could approach 33% by 2030. While usage will rise quickly, advertising revenue may lag initially, with ad spend catching up to usage trends over time.

The report draws a comparison with TikTok’s monetisation trajectory. In 2022, TikTok represented 30% of user time spent across platforms but captured just 8% of digital ad spend. By 2024, it had increased its ad revenue share to 16%, showing how usage can lead monetisation in emerging digital ecosystems.

Google’s Market Share Expected to Decline

Google currently holds over 90% of the global search advertising market, but this share is expected to fall to around 60% by 2030, according to the report. The rise of AI-driven alternatives like ChatGPT and changing user search habits are seen as key factors behind this projected decline.

Ad Pricing Pressures and Legal Developments

Wells Fargo analysts also warned that ChatGPT’s entry into the search ad market could lead to downward pressure on cost-per-click (CPC) rates. For Google, every 1% dip in CPC could reduce its fiscal 2026 earnings per share (EPS) by a similar margin.

Several catalysts could accelerate ChatGPT’s market growth, including:

• Strategic partnerships with smartphone manufacturers

• Regulatory outcomes in the U.S. Department of Justice's antitrust case against Google, which may open further avenues for AI-driven search tools

(Sources: investing.com, reuters.com)