The Financial Times (FT) presents its annual predictions for the upcoming year, covering global politics, economics, technology, and cultural trends. Here's a snapshot of what 2025 might bring.

Global Conflicts and Diplomacy

• Ukraine and Russia Peace Deal: A resolution is likely, spurred by American pressure. Ukraine may agree to Russia’s de facto control over occupied territories in exchange for European security guarantees, while NATO membership is deferred.
• Sudan's Conflict Continues: Tragically, the war in Sudan is expected to persist, fuelled by external and internal profiteers, with little international intervention.
• Iran and Israel: While Israel is tempted to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, US hesitance will likely prevent an escalation.

Economic Predictions

• US Interest Rates: Rates are expected to remain high due to inflationary pressures from tax cuts and tariffs, despite other central banks easing rates.
• China's Export Prices: A sharp decline in Chinese export prices will intensify competition for global businesses.
• Germany’s Debt Brake: Pressure to relax borrowing restrictions is growing as Germany faces economic stagnation and rising defence expenditures.
• Bitcoin’s Rise: Bitcoin could double to $200,000, driven by institutional adoption and crypto-friendly US policies.

Leadership and Politics

• Donald Trump’s Tariff War: Expect substantial tariffs on US imports, targeting China and potentially impacting Canada and Mexico.
• Emmanuel Macron’s Struggles: Despite a fractured parliament and mounting opposition, Macron is poised to remain in office.
• UK Labour Government’s Tax Pledge: Labour is likely to honour its promise of no further tax increases in the short term, but fiscal pressures loom large.

Technology and Business

• AI Agents: 2025 will see the rise of “agentic AI” – software that manages tasks like shopping or scheduling on behalf of users.
• Magnificent Seven Tech Giants: While these companies will maintain their dominance, AI-related hype may lead to tempered growth.
• Electric Vehicles (EVs): EV sales will continue to rise but are unlikely to surpass 25% of global auto sales due to waning consumer enthusiasm outside China.

Cultural and Entertainment Trends

• CDs and Vinyl Revival: Despite a niche market among K-pop fans, CDs will not experience the long-term growth seen with vinyl.
• Hollywood Consolidation: Another major studio sale, likely Warner Bros Discovery, seems inevitable as streaming reshapes the industry.

Environmental and Global Changes

• China’s Carbon Emissions: Efforts to reduce emissions will stall as economic stimulus offsets progress in green technologies.
• India’s GDP vs Japan: India’s economy will not surpass Japan’s in 2025 but remains on track for future growth.

Conclusion

The FT’s predictions offer a mix of optimism and caution for 2025. From geopolitical resolutions to economic adjustments and technological advancements, the world faces both challenges and opportunities. While uncertainties persist, these insights provide a valuable lens to anticipate global developments.

Source: (FT.com)