JP Morgan Predicts Gold Prices Could Exceed $4,000/oz by Q2 2026 Amid Rising Economic Uncertainty

Gold prices are on track to surge past $4,000 per ounce by the second quarter of 2026, according to a new forecast from JPMorgan Chase. The global investment bank attributes its bullish outlook to rising recession risks, intensifying U.S.-China trade tensions, and escalating U.S. tariffs—all contributing to heightened demand for safe-haven assets.

Gold Price Forecast: $3,675 by Q4 2025, $4,000+ by Mid-2026

JPMorgan now expects gold prices to average approximately $3,675 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a continued upward trajectory surpassing $4,000 per ounce by Q2 2026. Analysts noted that the risks to this projection are tilted to the upside, suggesting that stronger-than-expected demand could lead to even faster price gains.

“Strong and sustained demand from both institutional investors and central banks—averaging around 710 tonnes per quarter—will be a critical driver of gold’s price momentum,” JPMorgan analysts wrote in a client note on Tuesday.

Gold Hits $3,500 Milestone, Continues to Set New Records

Spot gold has already seen an impressive 29% increase in value this year and has reached 28 all-time highs. On Tuesday, it crossed the $3,500 per ounce threshold for the first time, reinforcing market expectations of further price appreciation.

The bullish sentiment is echoed by other financial institutions. Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2025 gold price forecast to $3,700 per ounce, up from $3,300. In a more extreme scenario, Goldman suggested gold could potentially reach $4,500 per ounce by late 2025.

Downside Risks: What Could Derail the Rally?

While the long-term gold outlook remains positive, JPMorgan highlighted several downside risks. A significant decrease in central bank gold buying would be a major bearish signal, as such demand plays a pivotal role in stabilizing prices.

An even more impactful scenario could emerge if the U.S. economy shows strong resilience to tariff pressures, allowing the Federal Reserve to adopt a more aggressive monetary policy stance. In that case, the Fed might preemptively raise interest rates to combat inflation risks, which could dampen investor appetite for non-yielding assets like gold.

Silver Outlook: Slower Growth in the Short Term, Stronger Gains by Late 2025

JPMorgan also weighed in on silver, noting that industrial demand uncertainties may cap short-term upside. However, the bank forecasts a “catch-up phase” beginning in the second half of 2025, with silver prices expected to climb toward $39 per ounce by year-end.

Conclusion: Safe-Haven Demand and Macroeconomic Factors Fuel Gold's Bullish Momentum

As global economic conditions remain volatile, precious metals like gold are regaining investor attention. JPMorgan’s forecast of gold surpassing $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 underscores growing confidence in the asset’s role as a hedge against inflation, geopolitical risk, and market instability.

(Sources: reuters.com, ChatGPT)