Market for GLP-1 Obesity to Reach $90 Billion by 2029

UBS analysts forecast in a report that the market for GLP-1 obesity treatment options would significantly expand and reach around $90 billion by 2029.

According to researchers' updated prognosis, which is part of a larger estimate, the combined GLP-1 market for obesity and diabetes would reach $150 billion by 2029, showing a 33% compound annual growth rate from 2023 to 2029.

According to UBS, the rise in obesity therapy is the primary cause of these changes. Of the non-type 2 diabetes obese and overweight patients, 28 million GLP-1 patients are predicted, accounting for 9% of the total.  

UBS has increased its sales projection for orforglipron to $17 billion by 2029, up from a prior estimate of $4 billion and much higher than the consensus estimate of $5 billion. The bank does this because it feels the market is underestimating the potential penetration of orforglipron.

As long as the market is still capacity-constrained, UBS does not see major pricing challenges in the near future, despite continuous conversations regarding GLP-1 pricing from Capitol Hill and payors.

Although UBS notes recent changes in the competition, it anticipates a minimal impact and continues to foresee a duopoly between Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, with prospective competition starting to emerge around 2028. Due to Lilly and Novo's significant market encroachment, it projects a less than 10% market share by 2029, indicating minimal penetration from potential entrants.

Furthermore, UBS has updated its projections regarding Medicare's coverage of anti-obesity drugs, predicting that it will start in 2024 rather than 2027 as it had previously predicted.

This update complies with new CMS guidelines that encompass FDA-approved anti-obesity drugs for additional recognised medical reasons, including non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, obstructive sleep apnoea, and cardiovascular outcomes studies. However, because of continuous capacity limitations, UBS anticipates a gradual ramp-up in coverage.

(Sources: investing.com, reuters.com)