S&P 500 Rallies Amid Conflicting Iran Truce Reports

Wall Street surges as investors hope for easing Middle East tensions and await key Fed rate decision

US Markets Climb on Hopes of De-escalation

US stocks rallied on Monday despite conflicting reports over a potential ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Investors reacted positively to the prospect of reduced geopolitical tensions, sending major indices sharply higher.

At the close of trade:

• Dow Jones rose 317 points (+0.8%)
• S&P 500 climbed 1%
• Nasdaq Composite surged 1.4%

Markets were buoyed by optimism that hostilities in the Middle East may ease, even though Iran denied seeking a ceasefire.

Iran Denies Ceasefire Talks, But Markets Remain Upbeat

Earlier reports from Reuters and The Wall Street Journal suggested Iran had reached out to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman, asking them to urge President Trump to help mediate a ceasefire with Israel.

However, Tehran swiftly denied any ceasefire request, casting doubt on diplomatic progress. Despite this, markets remained upbeat, partly due to falling oil prices that signalled easing supply concerns.

Federal Reserve Meeting in Focus

Investor attention now turns to the US Federal Reserve, which begins a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday.

• The Fed is expected to hold interest rates at 4.5%
• Traders will look for signals on future rate cuts
• Recent data shows softening inflation and a cooling labour market

While the Fed has held a steady line on rates in 2025, pressure is building from President Trump to cut further. The central bank reduced rates by 1% in 2024 but signalled a slower pace this year due to economic uncertainty, partly driven by Trump’s trade tariffs.

Global Tensions on G7 Agenda

The G7 Summit kicks off in Canada this week, with world leaders expected to address the Iran-Israel conflict and global trade tensions.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has committed to pushing for peace and security, but warned that Canada may retaliate if US tariffs on steel and aluminium remain in place.

This sets the stage for a potentially tense summit, especially amid the backdrop of Trump’s protectionist policies.

Corporate Movers: Roku and United States Steel Surge

• Roku shares soared following a new partnership with Amazon Ads, creating what they claim is the largest authenticated connected TV network in the US.
• United States Steel jumped after Trump approved its tie-up with Japan’s Nippon Steel.
• Sarepta Therapeutics fell sharply after disclosing a second patient death related to its experimental gene therapy.

Investment Takeaway: Cautious Optimism for Equities

Despite geopolitical uncertainty, investor sentiment remains strong thanks to:

• Hopes for Middle East de-escalation
• Potential Fed policy shift towards easing
• Stable inflation and encouraging tech partnerships

However, risks remain if Iran-Israel tensions escalate again or the Fed signals no near-term cuts. Investors should monitor developments from the G7 summit and Fed meeting closely.

Summary

• US stocks rally despite confusion over Iran-Israel ceasefire
• Fed expected to hold rates, but cuts may be hinted
• G7 leaders meet in Canada, with trade and security in focus
• Major moves from Roku, US Steel, and Sarepta shake markets
• Investors remain cautiously optimistic amid global uncertainty

Sources: (Investing.com, ChatGPT)