US Stocks Reach Highest Valuations Since Dotcom Era
US Stocks Overvalued Compared to Bonds
US equities have reached their most expensive levels relative to government bonds since the dotcom bubble, raising concerns among investors about inflated valuations. The forward earnings yield for the S&P 500 has fallen to 3.9%, while 10-year Treasury yields have risen to 4.65%, pushing the equity risk premium (ERP) into negative territory for the first time since 2002.
This decline in the ERP reflects investors’ willingness to own stocks, particularly mega-cap tech companies, without demanding much compensation for risk. As Ben Inker, co-head of asset allocation at GMO, remarked:
“Investors are saying, ‘I want to own these dominant tech companies,’ even without a substantial risk premium.”
Concentration in Mega-Cap Tech Stocks
The current market rally is largely driven by the Magnificent Seven—a small group of dominant tech companies. This concentration raises concerns about portfolio balance and sustainability:
- Investors face a dilemma: on one hand, concerns about market concentration; on the other, the fear of missing out on the performance of companies “taking over the world.”
- Market watchers like Chris Jeffery of Legal & General warn that red flags include US equities being significantly more expensive compared to international stocks.
Debating Valuation Metrics
The so-called Fed model, which compares stock earnings yields to Treasury yields, is a key reference point but has its critics:
- Miroslav Aradski of BCA Research noted that on inflation-adjusted measures, the ERP remains at its lowest level since the dotcom era.
- Aswath Damodaran, a finance professor, calculates that while the ERP has declined over the past year, it is not yet negative when adjusted for cash flow expectations.
Despite the criticisms, most valuation models point to high multiples for US equities, sparking debate over whether these valuations are justified in the current environment of strong corporate earnings and low unemployment.
Implications for Investors
- Diversification Is Key:
- With the Magnificent Seven driving the market, the risk of overexposure to a handful of companies is high. Investors are advised to diversify globally and explore sectors beyond US tech.
- Andrew Pease of Russell Investments recommends broadening equity exposure to reduce portfolio concentration risks.
- Fixed Income Opportunities:
- Rising Treasury yields make bonds more attractive compared to equities. Pimco’s chief investment officer highlighted that the valuation gap between bonds and equities is “as wide as we’ve seen in a long time.”
- Volatility Risks:
- Concentrated market gains increase vulnerability to corrections, especially if Treasury yields rise further, as bonds become a more appealing safe haven.
Broader Economic Implications
- Global Market Disparities:
- The high valuation of US equities compared to international stocks may shift investor focus to emerging markets and European equities, which offer more attractive price-to-earnings ratios.
- Non-US economies could attract capital as investors seek value in regions less reliant on mega-cap tech.
- Economic Stability Concerns:
- High equity valuations may signal a speculative bubble, reminiscent of the dotcom era. A potential correction could have ripple effects on consumer confidence and spending, particularly in the US.
- Technology Sector Dominance:
- While the US tech sector continues to drive growth, its heavy influence on global markets means any slowdown in tech earnings could affect worldwide economic stability.
Conclusion
The record-high valuations of US stocks relative to bonds reflect investor optimism but also carry significant risks. For investors, this environment underscores the importance of diversification and caution in overexposing portfolios to mega-cap tech. As the global economy grapples with rising bond yields and uneven valuations, opportunities may lie in undervalued international markets and fixed income investments.
Source: (FT.com)
