S&P 500 Historical Trends Suggest Strong Year-End Gains: What Investors Can Expect for 2024

Analysing the S&P 500’s performance over the past five years, the index has consistently shown gains between October 1 and the final trading day of December. With an average increase of 9.26% during this October-December period, a similar gain from the current levels could push the S&P 500 to approximately 6,250. However, expanding to a 10-year view reveals an average increase of 5.26% in the same timeframe. If this historical trend continues, a 5.26% rise would bring the index to around 6,050 by year-end, a more conservative yet achievable target considering today’s market conditions.

Factors Impacting S&P 500 Gains: Earnings Season and U.S. Election

As earnings season kicks off and the U.S. election approaches, the potential for headwinds rises, potentially impacting the S&P 500’s performance in the near term. Given these factors, many analysts believe a 5.26% gain may be more feasible than 9.26% as the year-end target for the index.

September’s Positive Close Sets a Bullish Tone for Year-End

Historically, September tends to be a weaker month for the S&P 500, but this year’s close with a 1.89% gain (according to IG charting data) suggests a potentially bullish setup for the remainder of the year. Research from Bank of America indicates that when September closes positively—regardless of an election year—the last quarter often sees stronger performance. While historical trends don’t guarantee future outcomes, the data suggest that the S&P 500 could close the year on a high note if seasonal patterns hold.

(Sources: reuters.com)