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SP500 - only 1.3% away from ATHs, but is volatility definitely behind us?

Chart & Data from IG

By Minipip
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The SP500 is now only 1.3% away from all-time highs, with the current price of the index at around 5,595 in the pre-market trade. However, caution still remains with the widely expected speech from Jerome Powell later in the afternoon at Jackson Hole. Additionally, with September now around the corner, investors and traders have been warned by the bigger banks of potential volatility with history showing that September tends to deliver poor returns. This may also be fuelled by the upcoming US elections with the votes narrowing further and Harris gaining a bigger following in recent weeks. The resistance near term is clearly the all-time high of 5,669. A break above here would be a possible suggestion that markets are resilient to the upcoming danger factors, perhaps an indication that these have been priced in. This could pave the way to the next psychological resistance of 6,000 (longer-term outlook). However, with the price of the SP500 still hovering below the all-time high, there is still time for the index to form a lower high, which could lead to a near-term sell-off. The depth of that sell-off could only be determined as we head into the fourth quarter of the year based on more data and possible rate cuts. The first support level for the near term is located around 5,444, followed by 5,391. A move below here would shift the focus toward the April high of 5,276. Looking at the technical indicators, they remain mixed as the MACD hasn’t moved above its signal line as of yet. But the RSI is back to bullish as it reads 66.

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