Markets on Edge: What to Watch in a High-Stakes Week for Global Economies

From Black Friday spending to the UK Budget and China’s tech giants, here are the forces shaping the markets this week

Global markets are entering a tense and closely watched week as political decisions, economic data and corporate earnings collide. With investor sentiment fragile and risk appetite shifting, developments across the United States, the United Kingdom, China and South Africa will play a crucial role in determining market direction.

Below are the key themes set to dominate the week ahead.

1. Black Friday Marks a Crucial Test for U.S. Consumers

All attention turns to American consumers as the holiday shopping season begins in earnest. Black Friday — traditionally the busiest retail day of the year — arrives amid:

• Slipping consumer confidence.
• Stubborn inflation that continues to squeeze household budgets.
• A delayed September retail sales report due this week, offering insight into spending patterns.

Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. GDP, so the data released this week will be essential for understanding whether economic resilience can continue into the winter.

Despite pressure on budgets, several years of strong stock market performance may encourage higher-income households to keep shopping, underpinning seasonal retail activity.

2. UK Budget Countdown: Reeves Faces a Delicate Balancing Act

The build-up to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ 26 November Budget has created significant market nerves. Recent volatility in sterling, gilts and bank shares reflects deep uncertainty about what lies ahead.

Key concerns include:

• Reeves must raise tens of billions of pounds to remain within her fiscal rules.
• Confusion has surrounded potential tax rises — with markets swinging between expectations for higher income tax and suggestions that such rises may be off the table.
• The Labour government must convince markets it can be trusted on fiscal stability while reassuring voters that its manifesto pledges will not be broken.

The stakes could hardly be higher. With borrowing costs elevated and economic growth weakening, any perceived misstep could intensify market volatility.

3. Alibaba Earnings Will Reveal Whether China’s Tech Rally Has Staying Power

China’s technology sector — and Alibaba in particular — faces a major test as the company reports earnings on 25 November.

Investors will be assessing:

• Whether Jack Ma’s pledge to “Make Alibaba Great Again” is gaining traction.
• If the company’s strategy will remain resilient amid growing competition in the Chinese AI market.
• The impact of recent allegations in the Financial Times linking Alibaba to military technology — allegations the company has denied.
• Whether Alibaba’s AI chatbot, Qwen, can realistically compete with market leaders such as ChatGPT.

Alibaba’s share price, which has nearly doubled this year, plays a significant role in the Hang Seng Tech Index. A disappointment could weigh on wider Chinese tech sentiment.

4. G20 Summit Overshadowed by U.S. Absence

South Africa concludes its G20 presidency by hosting the final summit of the year — but the meeting is missing a key participant: the United States.

President Donald Trump confirmed the U.S. would not take part, raising questions about:

• The effectiveness of the group in addressing global challenges.
• How progress can be made on debt relief, climate finance and fairer trade rules without the world’s largest economy at the table.
• Whether leadership gaps could weaken the bloc’s long-term credibility.

South Africa remains focused on advancing priority issues, but the absence casts a long shadow over the summit’s outcomes.

5. Bitcoin’s “Death Cross” Adds Pressure to a Deepening Crypto Slump

Bitcoin, once the standout performer of the past two years, is facing intense selling pressure. Since its October peak of $126,223, the cryptocurrency has fallen by roughly one-third.

Key developments include:

• A total crypto market decline exceeding $1 trillion since Bitcoin’s all-time high.
• Traders increasingly leaning on technical indicators rather than fundamentals.
• The emergence of a “death cross” — where the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day — typically seen as a bearish signal.

Nervousness around high-growth assets, from crypto to AI-linked stocks, suggests investors are turning more cautious.

Sources: (Investing.com, Reuters.com)